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U.S. Outlook: The curious case for panicked rate cuts
Wait a minute. What’s the argument for cutting the Fed funds rate either 75 or 100 basis points before the end of the year, again? I have the feeling that markets blew right past that question on...
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U.S. Outlook: October Payrolls – Data Revisions Steal the Show
The U.S. labor market is slowing, just not as quickly as we all thought before the release of the October payrolls report. Despite the substantial headwinds of the GM strike and escalation of the trade...
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A Positive Surprise From November Payrolls
Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated to 266k jobs last month easily surpassing the consensus forecast looking for a 180k job gain. Manufacturing alone added 54k net jobs in November more than reversing...
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January’s Employment Gains Solid
The January payroll report was a solid report across most metrics. The headline nonfarm payroll gain of 225k jobs last month handily beat analysts’ forecasts looking for a gain of 165k jobs in January....
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Treasury Yields Crash – Ignoring Strong Jobs Report
The coronavirus itself is a serious threat to both U.S. and global economic expansion. It is both a supply and demand shock to global growth as producers face supply-chain disruptions and service and...
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Labor Market Shows Signs of Life in May
The May Employment Report released this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics captured more of the economic reopening than we expected, allowing for a surprising 2.51 million gain in nonfarm...
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Employment Growth Decelerates In July
U.S. non-farm payroll growth in July beat consensus expectations, rising by 1.763 million jobs compared to expectations for 1.48 million. However, this was a sharp deceleration from June’s 4.791...
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California Economic Outlook – September 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic growth has resumed and net job loss has ended in California after a sharp and unprecedented decline in March and April. But despite three consecutive months of solid...
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September Employment Lands Short of the Mark
The September jobs reports brought more troubling signs that the labor market rebound that began in earnest in May as furloughed workers returned to work and peaked in June with a one month 4.78...
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Another Better Than Expected Jobs Report For October
The U.S. labor market recovery continued in October at a fairly rapid clip, though the pace of net job creation slowed for the fourth consecutive month to a gain of 638k jobs down from a 672k gain in...
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